‘The Hottest Job Market In Half A Century’

Reminder: ‘For Most Americans, The Tax Cuts And Jobs Act Delivered Larger Paychecks,’ ‘The Vast Majority Of People Did Get A Tax Cut’

SEN. CHUCK GRASSLEY (R-IA), Senate Finance Committee Chairman, and REP. KEVIN BRADY (R-TX), Ranking Member, House Ways and Means Committee: “For most Americans, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act delivered larger paychecks starting last February, even if many workers didn’t notice.” (Sen. Grassley and Rep. Brady, Op-Ed, “Lower Tax Refunds Show How The Republican Tax Cut Is Keeping Money In Your Hands All Year,” USA Today, 2/20/2019)

• SEN. GRASSLEY AND REP. BRADY: “Thanks to the tax cuts, led by President Trump, the Child Tax Credit is doubled and available to millions more parents, the standard deduction nearly doubled, tax rates were lowered at every income level, and over 90 percent of Americans will be able to use the simplest available tax form — without the hassle of itemizing.” (Sen. Grassley and Rep. Brady, Op-Ed, “Lower Tax Refunds Show How The Republican Tax Cut Is Keeping Money In Your Hands All Year,” USA Today, 2/20/2019)

“[T]here is little disagreement on this core point: Most people got a tax cut. The Tax Policy Center estimates that 65 percent of people paid less under the law … Other analyses reached similar conclusions. The Joint Committee on Taxation — Congress’s nonpartisan team of tax analysts — found that every income group would see a tax cut on average. So did the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, a left-leaning think tank … In fact, that group went even further: In a December 2017 analysis, it found that every income group in every state would pay less on average under the law in 2019.” (“Face It: You (Probably) Got a Tax Cut,” The New York Times, 4/14/2019)

JOINT COMMITTEE ON TAXATION: “The aggregate distributional analysis produced by the Joint Committee staff shows that the 2017 Tax Act as a package provided tax liability reductions on average across all income categories.” (“Distributional Effects Of Public Law 115-97,” Joint Committee on Taxation, JCX-10-19, 3/25/2019)

• According to the Joint Committee on Taxation, in 2019 “the majority of tax filers are projected to have reductions in tax liability” due to the 2017 tax reform legislation. (“Distributional Effects Of Public Law 115-97,” Joint Committee on Taxation, JCX-10-19, 3/25/2019)

• The Joint Committee projects that nearly half of all taxpayers will see a tax decrease of greater than $500 for 2019. (“Distributional Effects Of Public Law 115-97,” Joint Committee on Taxation, JCX-10-19, 3/25/2019)

“‘The vast majority of people did get a tax cut,’ said Nathan Rigney, an analyst at H&R Block’s Tax Institute. That’s been clear all along, he added, ‘just now we have real data to back that up.’” (“Face It: You (Probably) Got a Tax Cut,” The New York Times, 4/14/2019)

• “So far, tax season seems to be playing out more or less as the experts predicted. H&R Block, the tax-preparation giant, said last week that two-thirds of returning customers had paid less tax this year than last (excluding people who owed no tax in either year). Taxes were down, on average, in every state.” (“Face It: You (Probably) Got a Tax Cut,” The New York Times, 4/14/2019)

• “The middle fifth of earners got about a $780 tax cut last year on average, according to the Tax Policy Center. Most Americans would probably welcome a $780 windfall.” (“Face It: You (Probably) Got a Tax Cut,” The New York Times, 4/14/2019)

“To a large degree, the gap between perception and reality on the tax cuts appears to flow from a sustained — and misleading — effort by liberal opponents of the law …” (“Face It: You (Probably) Got a Tax Cut,” The New York Times, 4/14/2019)

‘The Job Market Doesn’t Get Much Better Than This,’ With Workers ‘Receiving The Fattest Wage Increases Since The Great Recession’

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 3.2 million jobs have been created since Republicans passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in December 2017. (BLS.gov, Accessed 4/10/2019)

“The unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent in February, marking one year of sitting at or below 4 percent …” (“Workers Suddenly Have More Power To Demand Higher Pay And Better Jobs,” The Washington Post, 3/08/2019)

“The job market doesn’t get much better than this. The U.S. economy has added jobs for 100 consecutive months. Unemployment recently touched its lowest level in 49 years.” (“Inside The Hottest Job Market In Half A Century,” The Wall Street Journal, 3/01/2019)

• “The United States has had more job openings than unemployed people since June …” (“Workers Suddenly Have More Power To Demand Higher Pay And Better Jobs,” The Washington Post, 3/08/2019)

• “The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits dropped to a 49-1/2-year low last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength … Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 196,000 for the week ended April 6, the lowest level since early October 1969. Claims have now declined for four straight weeks.” (“US Weekly Jobless Claims Drop To The Lowest Level Since 1969,” CNBC, 4/11/2019)

FORMER FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR JANET YELLEN: “If you can hold unemployment at a low level for a long time there are substantial benefits…. Real wage growth will be faster in a tight labor market. So disadvantaged workers gain on the employment and the wage side, and to my mind, that’s clearly a good thing.” (“Inside The Hottest Job Market In Half A Century,” The Wall Street Journal, 3/01/2019)

Wages Are Growing At ‘The Fastest Pace In Nearly A Decade And Well Above Inflation’

“Workers are receiving the fattest wage increases since the Great Recession as employers struggle to find enough people to fill their ranks and employees have more leverage to demand higher pay and jump to better jobs. Wages grew 3.4 percent in the past year, the government reported Friday, the fastest pace in nearly a decade and well above inflation, suggesting that employers are hustling to lure and retain workers.” (“Workers Suddenly Have More Power To Demand Higher Pay And Better Jobs,” The Washington Post, 3/08/2019)

• “[C]ompetition has picked up for lower-skilled workers lately, too. The unemployment rate for workers without high school diplomas fell to 5.3 percent in February, a record low since the Labor Department began tracking that statistic in 1992. Wages for workers who are not in management positions are growing faster — at a rate of 3.5 percent — than the overall trend, another indication of increased competition for workers at the lower part of the income scale.” (“Workers Suddenly Have More Power To Demand Higher Pay And Better Jobs,” The Washington Post, 3/08/2019)

‘All Sorts Of People Who Have Previously Had Trouble Landing A Job Are Now Finding Work’

“All sorts of people who have previously had trouble landing a job are now finding work. Racial minorities, those with less education and people working in the lowest-paying jobs are getting bigger pay raises and, in many cases, experiencing the lowest unemployment rate ever recorded for their groups. They are joining manufacturing workers, women in their prime working years, Americans with disabilities and those with criminal records, among others, in finding improved job prospects after years of disappointment.” (“Inside The Hottest Job Market In Half A Century,” The Wall Street Journal, 3/01/2019)

• “As ‘we’re hiring’ signs abound, people who were not actively looking for jobs have started jumping back into the labor force, suggesting that there could be more untapped potential. Young women and Hispanics have driven much of the labor-force growth recently.” (“Workers Suddenly Have More Power To Demand Higher Pay And Better Jobs,” The Washington Post, 3/08/2019)

Across The Country, Workers Are Benefitting From Raises, Promotions, And New Opportunities

IOWA: “Lana Pol’s small businesses are enjoying big savings under the new tax law … The entrepreneur runs four small companies across Iowa, including Mowbility Sales & Service, which sells agricultural equipment, and Geetings Inc., a trucking and warehousing business. Pol said she saw a drop in her overall tax burden this year thanks to the qualified business deduction, a change made to the individual tax code, available for pass-through entities. Her savings look substantial. ‘We’re estimating around up to $40,000,” Pol said. ‘By utilizing that, we gave our employees raises, knowing that was going to help us for taxes this year.’” (CNBC, 3/18/2019)

NEVADA: “Ron Nelsen, who runs a garage door business in Las Vegas called Pioneer Overhead Door, said a man in his late 20s showed up at the office at 7:30 a.m. recently in work pants and white T-shirt saying, ‘I need a job. I’m ready to go to work.’ Nelsen liked him immediately, since he had experience installing garage doors, and told him to come back for a longer interview at 2 p.m. But as the man turned to go, Nelsen changed his mind and hired him on the spot. He was afraid he would lose him to another construction company down the road before the afternoon.” (“Workers Suddenly Have More Power To Demand Higher Pay And Better Jobs,” The Washington Post, 3/08/2019)

MISSISSIPPI: “One face of the red-hot job market is Cassandra Eaton, 23, a high-school graduate who was making $8.25 an hour at a daycare center near Biloxi, Miss., just a few months ago. Now she earns $19.80 an hour as an apprentice at a Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. shipyard in nearby Pascagoula, where she is learning to weld warships…. ‘It’s amazing that I’m getting paid almost $20 an hour to learn how to weld,’ says Ms. Eaton, the single mother of a young daughter. When she finishes the two-year apprenticeship, her wage will rise to more than $27 per hour.” (“Inside The Hottest Job Market In Half A Century,” The Wall Street Journal, 3/01/2019)

INDIANA: “James O. Wilson dropped out of high school in the 10th grade and started selling drugs, which eventually led to a lengthy incarceration. When Mr. Wilson, 59, was released in 2013 he sought out training at Goodwill, where he learned to drive a forklift. Those skills led him to a part-time job at a FedEx Corp. facility at an Indianapolis airport. He was promoted to a full-time job in 2017 and is now earning more than $16 an hour. He has a house with his wife and enjoys taking care of his cars, including a prized Cadillac. ‘I wanted to show FedEx you can take a person, and he can change,’ he said. ‘I want FedEx to say, “Do you have any more people like him?”‘” (“Inside The Hottest Job Market In Half A Century,” The Wall Street Journal, 3/01/2019)