The Biden White House Is Living In An Economic Fantasy

Joe Biden And His White House Could Not Possibly Be More Out Of Touch On The Economy

“Asked to explain, Biden … replied, ‘Our economy is strong as hell’ — as he munched on a waffle cone of Baskin Robbins chocolate-chip ice cream.” (“Biden Insists US Economy Is ‘Strong As Hell’ As He Munches An Ice Cream Cone,” New York Post, 10/16/2022)

WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF RON KLAIN: “Gas prices were going up the past few weeks, but have started to go down again this week....” (Ron Klain, @WHCOS, Twitter, 10/17/2022)

FOX NEWS’ BILL HEMMER: “Is it time for this White House and the Biden administration to pivot on its economic policies?”
JARED BERNSTEIN, Member of the Council of Economic Advisers: “No…”
HEMMER: “I asked you that question and you said no. So are you saying no change? Are you saying no change in policy?”
BERNSTEIN: “Let me explain why, because the policies that we're doing to help mitigate and ease price pressures are having effect.” (Fox News’ “America’s Newsroom,” 10/13/2022)

JOE BIDEN: “If Republicans in Congress get their way, prices will go up and inflation will get worse. It’s that simple.” (President Biden, @POTUS, Twitter, 10/16/2022)

Americans’ Economic Reality: Persistent, Painful Inflation, A Looming Recession, And Rising Energy Prices

‘Inflation Has Swollen Families’ Grocery Bills, Rents And Utility Costs, Among Other Expenses, Causing Hardships For Many And Deepening Pessimism About The Economy’

“Inflation has swollen families’ grocery bills, rents and utility costs, among other expenses, causing hardships for many and deepening pessimism about the economy …” (“US Inflation Pressures Further Intensified In September,” The Associated Press, 10/13/2022)

“Inflation in the United States accelerated in September, with the cost of housing and other necessities intensifying pressure on households, wiping out pay gains that many have received and ensuring that the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates aggressively. Consumer prices rose 8.2% in September compared with a year earlier, the government said Thursday. On a month-to-month basis, prices increased 0.4% from August to September after having ticked up 0.1% from July to August.” (“US Inflation Pressures Further Intensified In September,” The Associated Press, 10/13/2022)

• “U.S. consumer inflation excluding energy and food accelerated to a new four-decade high in September as prices continued to surge, a sign that persistent cost increases are becoming entrenched in the economy. The Labor Department on Thursday said that the so-called core measure of the consumer price index—which excludes volatile energy and food prices—gained 6.6% in September from a year earlier, up from 6.3% in August. That marked the biggest increase since August 1982.” (“Inflation Sits at 8.2% as Core Prices Hit Four-Decade High,” The Wall Street Journal, 10/13/2022)

Since President Biden Took Office, Prices For Food, Energy, Transportation And Housing Have Increased At Staggering Rates

Since President Biden became president, inflation has increased 13.5%. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/13/2022)

• Grocery (food at home) prices have increased 18%. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/13/2022)

• Food away from home prices have increased 12%. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/13/2022)

• Energy prices have increased 45%. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/13/2022)

• Gasoline (all types) prices have increased 59%. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/13/2022)

• Natural gas prices have increased 52%. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/13/2022)

• Electricity prices have increased 23%. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/13/2022)

• Rental prices for a primary residence have increased 9%. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/13/2022)

• Prices for used cars and trucks have increased 36%. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/13/2022)

• Prices for new vehicles have increased 17%. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/13/2022)

• Furniture prices have increased 22%. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/13/2022)

• Apparel prices have increased 10%. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/13/2022)

• Airline fares have increased 42%. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/13/2022)

“A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms. The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update. … The forecasts provide a sharp contrast to Biden’s upbeat tone.” (“Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden,” Bloomberg, 10/17/2022)

“The U.S. is forecast to enter a recession in the coming 12 months as the Federal Reserve battles to bring down persistently high inflation, the economy contracts and employers cut jobs in response, according to The Wall Street Journal’s latest survey of economists. On average, economists put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 63%, up from 49% in July’s survey. It is the first time the survey pegged the probability above 50% since July 2020, in the wake of the last short but sharp recession. Their forecasts for 2023 are increasingly gloomy. Economists now expect gross domestic product to contract in the first two quarters of the year, a downgrade from the last quarterly survey, whereby they penciled in mild growth. On average, the economists now predict GDP will contract at a 0.2% annual rate in the first quarter of 2023 and shrink 0.1% in the second quarter.” (“Economists Now Expect a Recession, Job Losses by Next Year,” The Wall Street Journal, 10/16/2022)

• “Employers are expected to respond to lower growth and weaker profits by cutting jobs in the second and third quarters. Economists believe that nonfarm payrolls will decline by 34,000 a month on average in the second quarter and 38,000 in the third quarter.” (“Economists Now Expect a Recession, Job Losses by Next Year,” The Wall Street Journal, 10/16/2022)

‘U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Climbing Again And May Get Worse’

“U.S. gasoline prices are ticking up after a roughly 100-day decline, threatening to inflict new pain on consumers who have been grappling with widespread inflation for more than a year. Maintenance at fuel-making plants, more demand for gasoline and tight fuel supplies have contributed to a 14-day run of increasing gasoline prices. A gallon of regular averaged about $3.831 on Wednesday … prices are abnormally high for this time of the year, which is when refiners switch to producing winter-grade fuel blended with butane …” (“U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Climbing Again and May Get Worse,” The Wall Street Journal, 10/06/2022)

• “A decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its Russia-led allies [October 5^th] to cut oil production by 2 million barrels a day will further elevate prices, say analysts.” (“U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Climbing Again and May Get Worse,” The Wall Street Journal, 10/06/2022)

• “The price of oil, the primary input for gasoline, is also having an impact. Brent, the global benchmark, rose more than 2% to $93.90 on [October 5^th]. Exports of U.S. crude oil, OPEC+’s production cuts and limited capacity for additional releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve have essentially backstopped global oil prices from falling below $80 per barrel, putting a floor on domestic gasoline prices, said Frederick Lawrence, a director at research firm Capital Alpha Partners. ‘You don’t see these stresses fading away tomorrow,’ he said.” (“U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Climbing Again and May Get Worse,” The Wall Street Journal, 10/06/2022)

‘Utility Hikes Set Off Scramble To Pay For Heat This Winter’

“Utility companies are raising rates across the country, sending consumers and the assistance programs many rely on racing to prepare for a costly winter…. Nearly half of U.S. households use natural gas to heat their homes, and they will spend 28% more to do so this winter, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected Wednesday. Those who use heating oil … will spend 27% more — barring a colder forecast — and homes that primarily use electricity and propane will pay 10% and 5% more, respectively.” (“‘All That Money’s Gone’: Utility Hikes Set Off Scramble To Pay For Heat This Winter,” NBC News, 10/13/2022)

• “A representative for Appalachian Power said the monthly bill for the average residential customer in Virginia using 1,000 kilowatt-hours will go from $123.33 to about $157 by the end of the year. About 60% of the regional hike is related to higher fuel costs, the representative said…. Georgia Power is seeking permission to increase electricity rates a total of 12% over the next three years. Dominion Energy, which operates in several states, applied for a 14% rate hike for South Carolina consumers that could take effect as early as next month. Duke Energy customers in Indiana were recently hit with a 7% hike after a temporary 16% increase just this summer. Nationwide, investor-owned utilities have requested rate increases amounting to nearly $12 billion from the beginning of the year through the end of August, according to S&P Global.” (“‘All That Money’s Gone’: Utility Hikes Set Off Scramble To Pay For Heat This Winter,” NBC News, 10/13/2022)

A New NYT/Siena Poll Shows American Voters Pointing To Economic Concerns ‘Far Higher Than Any Other Issue’

“Republicans enter the final weeks of the contest for control of Congress with a narrow but distinctive advantage as the economy and inflation have surged as the dominant concerns, giving the party momentum to take back power from Democrats in next month’s midterm elections, a New York Times/Siena College poll has found…. With inflation unrelenting and the stock market steadily on the decline, the share of likely voters who said economic concerns were the most important issues facing America has leaped since July, to 44 percent from 36 percent — far higher than any other issue. And voters most concerned with the economy favored Republicans overwhelmingly, by more than a two-to-one margin.” (“Republicans Gain Edge as Voters Worry About Economy, Times/Siena Poll Finds,” The New York Times, 10/17/2022)

• “The biggest shift came from women who identified as independent voters. In September, they favored Democrats by 14 points. Now, independent women backed Republicans by 18 points — a striking swing given the polarization of the American electorate and how intensely Democrats have focused on that group and on the threat Republicans pose to abortion rights. The survey showed that the economy remained a far more potent political issue in 2022 than abortion.” (“Republicans Gain Edge as Voters Worry About Economy, Times/Siena Poll Finds,” The New York Times, 10/17/2022)

REMINDER: Democrats In Congress Got Their Way, And Prices Went Up And Inflation Got Worse

“Democratic candidates in competitive Senate races this fall have spent little time on the trail or the airwaves touting the centerpiece provisions of their party’s $1.9 trillion economic rescue package … Economists generally agree that the stimulus spending contributed to accelerating inflation …” (“Democrats Spent $2 Trillion to Save the Economy. They Don’t Want to Talk About It.,” The New York Times, 10/16/2022)