Economic Reality For Americans Is A Far Cry From Democrats’ Disconnected Rhetoric

Democrats Are Boasting Of ‘Real Results’ And ‘Dollars In Working People’s Pockets’ From Their Economic Agenda

PRESIDENT BIDEN: “The economic plan we began with in this administration has shown some real results.” (President Biden, Remarks, 1/26/2022)

SENATE MAJORITY LEADER CHUCK SCHUMER (D-NY): “A year into executing our Democratic agenda, the American economy is in the midst of a historic turnaround.” (Sen. Schumer, Remarks, 2/07/2022)

• SCHUMER: “And I want to stress an important point that is forgotten too often: we are finally seeing wages go up. That’s dollars in working people’s pockets…. Now, we’re finally seeing signs that wages are going up, and that’s going to stay for years to come.” (Sen. Schumer, Remarks, 2/01/2022)

But The Economic Reality For Most Americans Is Profoundly At Odds With Democrats’ Rosy Pronouncements

NBC: “Overwhelming majorities of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction [and] that their household income is falling behind the cost of living …” (“‘Downhill,’ ‘Divisive’: Americans Sour On Nation’s Direction In New NBC News Poll,” NBC News, 1/23/2022)

• “According to the poll, 72 percent of Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction — essentially unchanged from the 71 percent who held this view in October’s NBC News poll. It marks just the sixth time in the poll’s history when 70 percent or more have said the nation is on the wrong track in back-to-back surveys.” (“‘Downhill,’ ‘Divisive’: Americans Sour On Nation’s Direction In New NBC News Poll,” NBC News, 1/23/2022)

Two-Thirds Of Americans Think The Economy Is Getting Worse, While Nearly 90% Are Concerned About Inflation And Almost 80% Expect Inflation To Get Even Worse

GALLUP: “Additionally, 29% say the economy is getting better while 67% believe it is getting worse.” (“Americans Expect Inflation to Persist Over Next Six Months,” 1/26/2022)

ABC: “Troublingly for the White House, only 1% of Americans view the state of the nation’s economy as ‘excellent’… Three out of four Americans said the state of the economy was ‘not so good / poor.’” (“Majority Of Americans Want Biden To Consider ‘All Possible Nominees’ For Supreme Court Vacancy: POLL,” ABC News, 1/30/2022)

THE NEW YORK TIMES: “Nearly nine in 10 Americans say they are at least ‘somewhat concerned’ about inflation, and six in 10 are ‘very concerned.’ Worries about inflation cross generational, racial and even partisan lines: 95 percent of Republicans, 88 percent of independents and 82 percent of Democrats say they are concerned.” (“Only 17% Of Workers Say Their Pay Has Kept Pace With Inflation.,” The New York Times, 1/4/2022)

A January Gallup poll found that 79% of Americans expect inflation to continue going up over the next 6 months. (“Americans Expect Inflation to Persist Over Next Six Months,” Gallup, 1/26/2022)

• This expectation is the highest Gallup has ever measured, going back to 2002. (“Americans Expect Inflation to Persist Over Next Six Months,” Gallup, 1/26/2022)

Over 60% Of Americans ‘Say Their Family’s Income Is Falling Behind The Cost Of Living’ And Fewer Than One In Five Say Their Compensation Is Keep Up With Inflation

NBC: “On the economy … 61 percent of respondents in the poll say their family’s income is falling behind the cost of living.” (“‘Downhill,’ ‘Divisive’: Americans Sour On Nation’s Direction In New NBC News Poll,” NBC News, 1/23/2022)

THE NEW YORK TIMES: “Only 17 percent of workers say they have received raises that kept up with inflation over the past year, according to a survey of 5,365 adults conducted last month for The New York Times by Momentive, the online research firm formerly known as SurveyMonkey. Most of the rest say either that they have received raises that lagged price increases or that they have received no raise at all; 8 percent of respondents said they had taken a pay cut.” (“Only 17% Of Workers Say Their Pay Has Kept Pace With Inflation.,” The New York Times, 1/4/2022)

GALLUP: “41% of adults now say they are financially worse off than a year ago, also up from 36% in 2021…. The result of these changes is that ‘net’ financial progress -- that is, the percentage better off minus the percentage worse off -- has held at or near zero for each of the past two years, compared with net-positive financial progress from 2015 to 2020. The latest findings, from a Jan. 3-16 Gallup poll, come as consumers are experiencing the negative effects of inflation, which is at its highest level in 40 years. About half of U.S. adults (49%) told Gallup in a separate survey conducted in January that recent price increases have caused them financial hardship.” (“Financial Progress Still Eluding Americans,” 2/03/2022)

Economic Reality: ‘Rising Costs For Food, Rent And Other Necessities Are Heightening The Financial Pressures On America’s Households’

“Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years in December, increasing 7 percent over the same period a year ago, and cementing 2021 as a year marked by soaring inflation … Indeed, 2021 went down as the worst year for inflation since 1982 … Higher prices seeped into just about everything households and businesses buy, raising alarms for policymakers at the Federal Reserve and White House that inflation has spread throughout the economy. There’s no telling when prices will fall to more sustainable levels, and officials within the Fed and Biden administration expect high inflation will persist through much of 2022.” (“December Prices Rise 7 Percent, Compared To A Year Ago, As 2021 Inflation Reaches Highest In 40 Years,” The Washington Post, 1/12/2022)

“Prices paid by U.S. consumers jumped 7% in December from a year earlier, the highest inflation rate since 1982 and the latest evidence that rising costs for food, rent and other necessities are heightening the financial pressures on America’s households…. Rising prices have wiped out the healthy pay increases that many Americans have been receiving, making it harder for households, especially lower-income families, to afford basic expenses. Polls show that inflation has started displacing even the coronavirus as a public concern, making clear the political threat it poses to President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats.” (“US Consumer Prices Soared 7% In Past Year, Most Since 1982,” The Associated Press, 1/12/2022)

Economic Reality: ‘“That Raise Meant Nothing”: Inflation Is Wiping Out Pay Increases For Most Americans’

“After years of barely budging, wage growth is finally at its highest level in decades. A global pandemic, combined with swift government stimulus and unexpected labor shortages, have put workers in the driver’s seat, giving them the kind of negotiating power they had never imagined. But in an unexpected twist, the same strong economic recovery that is emboldening workers is also driving up inflation, leaving most Americans with less spending power than they had a year ago. Although average hourly wages rose 4.7 percent last year, overall wages fell 2.4 percent on average for all workers, when adjusted for inflation, according to the Labor Department.” (“‘That Raise Meant Nothing’: Inflation Is Wiping Out Pay Increases For Most Americans,” The Washington Post, 1/22/2022)

“In interviews with more than a dozen workers, many said that despite considerable pay raises — as much as 33 percent, in some cases — they were still struggling to cover basic expenses. Several workers said they had taken second jobs to keep up with rising costs for groceries, gas and rent.” (“‘That Raise Meant Nothing’: Inflation Is Wiping Out Pay Increases For Most Americans,” The Washington Post, 1/22/2022)

• “Devon Norris works as a culinary arts high school teacher and in the months since the pandemic began, his annual salary has increased by more than 20 percent to $47,500. Norris says it’s still next to impossible to find an apartment in Jacksonville, Fla., that he can afford on his own. His basic expenses — food, gas, utilities, car insurance — have all ballooned in the past year…. Norris, a former restaurant manager, has begun taking part-time jobs at restaurants to make ends meet. ‘I make the most money I’ve ever made, but I’m still broke and struggling,’ he says. ‘I never saw myself being 37 and needing a roommate.’” (“‘That Raise Meant Nothing’: Inflation Is Wiping Out Pay Increases For Most Americans,” The Washington Post, 1/22/2022)

• “Nicole Chociej, a graphic designer in West Virginia, makes 7 percent more than she did before the pandemic. But her costs have gone up too: She’s spending $100 more on groceries each month and an extra $25 to fill up her tank every week. The mortgage on the home she shares with her husband near Steubenville, Ohio, has also ticked up, thanks to higher insurance costs. ‘Our house payment, insurance, food, gas — all of those things have gone up by at least 7 percent,’ the 45-year-old said. ‘I’m in a situation where I’m able to survive, but there’s no extra money for vacations or to spend on our nieces and nephews.’ To offset soaring meat costs, she and her extended family are planning to pool their money to buy an entire cow, to keep them from buying meat at the grocery for months. ‘It’s going to cost us $1,200 to $1,800 for the cow, plus we’ve got to buy a freezer,’ she said. ‘But that’s the kind of thing we’re having to do to save a couple of pennies here and there.’” (“‘That Raise Meant Nothing’: Inflation Is Wiping Out Pay Increases For Most Americans,” The Washington Post, 1/22/2022)

• “Ty Stehlik, who works the front desk at a hotel in Milwaukee, pleaded for a raise all through the pandemic — and finally got an extra $1 an hour in the fall to make $15. But higher prices for rent and food have completely negated that 7 percent bump…. ‘That raise meant nothing,’ said Stehlik, 23, whose roommate works at the same hotel. ‘I’ve got student loans. My roommate’s got medical debt. Most of my co-workers work two or three jobs, and they’re still having difficulty making ends meet.’” (“‘That Raise Meant Nothing’: Inflation Is Wiping Out Pay Increases For Most Americans,” The Washington Post, 1/22/2022)

Economic Reality: ‘Rents Really Shot Up In The Second Half Of 2021,’ ‘Rent Is So High That I Can’t Afford Anything’

“Rental prices across the country have been rising for months, but lately the increases have been sharper and more widespread, forcing millions of Americans to reassess their living situations. Average rents rose 14 percent last year, to $1,877 a month, with cities like Austin, New York and Miami notching increases of as much as 40 percent, according to real estate firm Redfin. And Americans expect rents will continue to rise — by about 10 percent this year — according to a report released this month by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York…. ‘Rents really shot up in the second half of 2021,’ said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. ‘The pandemic was kind of a pause on the economy and now that things are reopening, inflation is picking up, rents are going up and people are realizing they don’t have as much disposable income as they might have thought they had.’” (“Rents Are Up More Than 30 Percent In Some Cities, Forcing Millions To Find Another Place To Live,” The Washington Post, 1/30/2022)

• “Eleven million households, or 1 in 4 renters, spend more than half of their monthly income on rent, according to an analysis of 2018 census data by Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, though experts say that figure is likely even higher now.” (“Rents Are Up More Than 30 Percent In Some Cities, Forcing Millions To Find Another Place To Live,” The Washington Post, 1/30/2022)

“Higher rent prices are also expected to be a key driver of inflation in coming months. Housing costs make up a third of the U.S. consumer price index, which is calculated based on the going rate of home rentals. But economists say there is a lag of 9 to 12 months before rising rents show up in inflation measures. As a result, even if inflation were to subside for all other components of the consumer price index, rising rents alone could keep inflation levels elevated through the year, said Frank Nothaft, chief economist at real estate data firm CoreLogic.” (“Rents Are Up More Than 30 Percent In Some Cities, Forcing Millions To Find Another Place To Live,” The Washington Post, 1/30/2022)

“In interviews with renters around the country, many said their monthly payments had recently risen or were set to go up in the coming weeks. Multiple people said that despite local rent freezes, their management companies had found ways to increase monthly dues by tacking on new ‘amenity fees’ or charging for services like trash collection that had previously been included. Many said they began looking for other rental options, only to find that everything around them had gone up in price, too. Some said they’re considering relocating altogether — from Austin to Richmond, or New York City to Dover, Del.” (“Rents Are Up More Than 30 Percent In Some Cities, Forcing Millions To Find Another Place To Live,” The Washington Post, 1/30/2022)

• “Kiara Age moved in less than a year ago and now it’s time to move again: Rent on her two-bedroom apartment in Henderson, Nev., is rising 23 percent to nearly $1,600 a month, making it impossibly out of reach for the single mother. Age makes $15 an hour working from home as a medical biller while also caring for her 1-year-old son, because she can’t afford child care. By the time she pays rent — which takes up more than half of her salary — and buys groceries, there’s little left over. ‘I am trying to figure out what I can do,’ said Age, 32, who also has an 8-year-old daughter. ‘Rent is so high that I can’t afford anything.’” (“Rents Are Up More Than 30 Percent In Some Cities, Forcing Millions To Find Another Place To Live,” The Washington Post, 1/30/2022)

Economic Reality: ‘Surging Food Prices’

“The U.S. Labor Department’s consumer-price index, which tracks the costs of consumer goods and services, climbed 7% in December from the same month in 2020, the fastest pace since 1982. The food-at-home index rose 6.5% in 2021, the largest over-the-year increase since 2008. The index for meats, poultry, fish and eggs increased 12.5% from 2020 to 2021, while fruits, vegetables, cereal and bakery products were also more expensive.” (“Surging Food Prices Turn More Shoppers Into Bargain Hunters,” The Wall Street Journal, 1/24/2022)

• “More price increases are coming. Major food suppliers including Mondelez International Inc., General Mills Inc. and Campbell Soup Co. said they planned further increases to take effect in January, following others that food companies implemented last year. Industries such as consumer products and manufacturing also have charged more for goods, citing higher wage, transportation and material costs.” (“Surging Food Prices Turn More Shoppers Into Bargain Hunters,” The Wall Street Journal, 1/24/2022)

“The percentage increase in produce prices from November to December, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, was twice that of other food categories…. The increases have been felt by groceries, restaurants and others. The average price-per-pound of fresh vegetables shipped in December was 19 percent higher than a year earlier, and fresh fruit was up 10 percent from the previous year, according to the research firm NPD Group, which tracks food shipped to restaurants through major distributors such as US Foods and Sysco.” (“Inflation Gobbles Up Fresh Produce, Driving Up Price Of Super Bowl Guacamole,” The Washington Post, 2/07/2022)

• “In the last week of 2021, prices for conventional blueberries were 45 percent higher than the year before, according to USDA data analyzed by Agronometrics, a market research firm.” (“Inflation Gobbles Up Fresh Produce, Driving Up Price Of Super Bowl Guacamole,” The Washington Post, 2/07/2022)

• “‘Prices for table grapes have risen double digits in the past couple weeks,’ [David Magaña, a senior analyst for RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness] said.” (“Inflation Gobbles Up Fresh Produce, Driving Up Price Of Super Bowl Guacamole,” The Washington Post, 2/07/2022)

• “Avocados are 100 percent more expensive than they were a year ago, according to Magaña, now costing $50 per carton.” (“Inflation Gobbles Up Fresh Produce, Driving Up Price Of Super Bowl Guacamole,” The Washington Post, 2/07/2022)

“When inflation is at 2 or 3 percent, grocery stores have tools to shield shoppers from those increases, but when inflation gets over 5 or 6 percent, a retailer runs out of options. ‘What that really means is intense pressure on lower- and middle-income consumers,’ [John] Ross [chief executive of the Independent Grocers Alliance] said, ‘because those increases have to be passed on to them.’” (“Inflation Gobbles Up Fresh Produce, Driving Up Price Of Super Bowl Guacamole,” The Washington Post, 2/07/2022)

• “The squeeze is not felt only at grocery stores, but also at food banks feeding the neediest Americans. For the Greater Boston Food Bank, bananas went from $10 per case to $12.30 in the past two weeks, said Catherine Drennan Lynn, a spokeswoman for the food bank. Apples are up 20 percent. Citrus is up 7 percent. Packaged salads were up 5 percent at the end of December. Lynn said even canned vegetables are up 20 percent.” (“Inflation Gobbles Up Fresh Produce, Driving Up Price Of Super Bowl Guacamole,” The Washington Post, 2/07/2022)

“As inflation reaches its highest rate in four decades, shoppers in recent months have started looking for ways to lower their food bills, industry executives and analysts said.” (“Surging Food Prices Turn More Shoppers Into Bargain Hunters,” The Wall Street Journal, 1/24/2022)

• “‘I’m getting creative with trying to save money,’ said Natalie Existe, a health counselor who lives in New Jersey. She said that she is buying groceries in bulk and comparing prices of multiple retailers online before going shopping in person. Ms. Existe said she has been checking weekly circulars for bargains and cutting spending on hair and nail appointments, as overall prices of goods increase. She said she has noticed higher prices for meat, vegetables and beverages such as orange juice and cranberry juice, and now spends about $200 a trip on groceries for herself and her 12-year-old son, compared with $125 to $150 months ago.” (“Surging Food Prices Turn More Shoppers Into Bargain Hunters,” The Wall Street Journal, 1/24/2022)

Economic Reality: ‘Many Americans Could Face Record High Heating Costs This Year,’ As Electricity, Natural Gas, Propane, And Heating Oil Are All More Expensive

“As if consumers weren’t being squeezed enough by rising prices for a wide range of goods, this month’s blast of winter weather will mean that many Americans could face record high heating costs this year. Cold weather, ice and snow have blanketed much of the United States in recent days and more is expected to hit soon, including in normally warm weather states such as North and South Carolina. That could send already sky high heating bills up even more, due mainly to spiking fuel prices…. [T]he significant increase in the costs of all types of heating fuel means that US households will pay between $700 and $1,700 more for heat this winter, depending upon where they live and what type of fuel they use.” (“Winter Storms And Spiking Energy Prices Could Lead To Record High Heating Bills,” CNN Business, 1/23/2022)

• “Natural gas, which is used to heat nearly half of all US homes, is 32% more expensive than it was a year ago, according to the US Energy Information Agency. And in some parts of the country, prices are even higher — including a 45% increase in the Midwest.” (“Winter Storms And Spiking Energy Prices Could Lead To Record High Heating Bills,” CNN Business, 1/23/2022)

• “The cost of electricity, the second most common source of heat that 40% of US homes rely on, is up nearly 6% nationwide. And costs are even higher in the South — up around 8% — where nearly two thirds of homes heat with electric power.” (“Winter Storms And Spiking Energy Prices Could Lead To Record High Heating Bills,” CNN Business, 1/23/2022)

• “The price of heating oil, which is primarily used in older homes and buildings in the Northeast and other cold weather areas of the country, is up 35%.” (“Winter Storms And Spiking Energy Prices Could Lead To Record High Heating Bills,” CNN Business, 1/23/2022)

• “Propane is the third most common heating fuel, primarily used in rural parts of the Midwest and Northeast. The price of propane is up 44% and 29% in those two regions, respectively, and up 30% in the South, where its use is also common.” (“Winter Storms And Spiking Energy Prices Could Lead To Record High Heating Bills,” CNN Business, 1/23/2022)

And The Average Price Of Gasoline Is The Highest Since 2014

“The average price of gasoline surged to the highest in more than seven years, posing a fresh challenge to U.S. President Joe Biden … Regular gasoline rose to $3.423 a gallon, the highest since September 2014, according to data on the website of AAA.” (“U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices Surge to Highest Since 2014,” Bloomberg, 2/4/2022)

And If Americans Want To Console Themselves With Some Valentines Chocolates, Sadly, They’re Both More Expensive And Harder To Find

“Hershey is raising prices this year…. In its 2022 financial forecast, the chocolate company behind Reese’s and Kit Kats said it is planning ‘list price increases across all segments’ … The price hikes should help offset higher ingredient and labor costs, said Steven Voskuil, the company’s chief financial officer, during an analyst call Thursday. Hershey is hiring to help relieve the pressure on overworked employees. Voskuil also noted sugar, dairy, packaging materials and specialty ingredients prices are all surging.” (“Everything Hershey Makes Is Going To Get More Expensive,” CNN Business, 2/03/2022)

“Hershey Co. said it is running low on Valentine’s Day candy this year, thanks to a shortage of labor and factory capacity. Many grocery shelves already are bare where heart-shaped chocolates should sit, and Hershey said it would likely stay that way leading up to the holiday.” (“Candy Makers Say Expect Shortages This Valentine’s Day,” The Wall Street Journal, 2/03/2022)

• “The candy aisle at the average store is currently out-of-stock of about one-fifth of its items—compared to 12% out-of-stock for the whole store, and a pre-pandemic normal of roughly 7%, according to the IRI CPG Supply Index. Hershey Chief Executive Michele Buck said the whole industry is having supply challenges, and Hershey’s challenges will persist despite the company adding manufacturing capacity and hiring more workers.” (“Candy Makers Say Expect Shortages This Valentine’s Day,” The Wall Street Journal, 2/03/2022)